Oscars 2010 form guide

The Oscars will be shown live on the Nine Network
commencing at around noon EDT on 8 March 2010

And the Oscar goes to...

Bigger I have gambled on the Oscars yet again this year. Just two bests. The first was $500 on Avatar to win best picture at odds of $3. I got very good odds because I backed it in early January before the Golden Globe Awards. Unfortunately, The Hurt Locker has picked up huge momentum in the meantime and looks like winning. The second is a roughie - $80 on Carey Mulligan to win best actress at odds of $11. I don’t think she’ll win but after snatching the BAFTA (where she had home field advantage), she may yet have a chance if there’s a vote split between Streep and Bullock. That said, my 8 year winning streak looks set to come to an end. I am up just over $4,533 for the past 15 years so I’m not complaining. Fingers are crossed a little tighter this year though.

The ceremony kicks off at 11am next Monday and for the first time ever, I’ve taken the day off work to watch it live. Back when Channel 9 only showed a delayed telecast, I used to have to hide somewhere so as not to hear the results. Thankfully those days are behind us. I can’t wait and you’ll be able to follow my thoughts on Twitter – http://twitter.com/icestorm77 - on the day.

There is much to discuss so here’s my 2010 form guide with details on who I think will win. Enjoy!

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Ok, I’m going with The Hurt Locker. It’s won the British Academy Award, the Director’s Guild Award (the most important of all lead up awards) and the Producer’s Guild Award. It’s also won the majority of critics prizes. This has been talked about as a “David v. Goliath” race over the past 2 months. Can a film which made $12m defeat a film which will make in excess of $700m? The answer looks like being yes. The strange thing is that now The Hurt Locker is the Goliath in this race with Avatar being David. Avatar still has a chance but I can’t say it’s a strong one. Inglourious Basterds is the only other film with any sliver of a hope. It won the best ensemble award at the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards and could sneak home in a Crash-like upset. Matt’s Pick: The Hurt Locker.

Best Achievement in Directing

James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Kathryn Bigelow has this one in the bag. She’s about to make history and become the first woman to ever win the Oscar for best director. Only 3 women have been previously nominated in this category which is astonishing. I don’t know the answer to this question but it’s worth debating if you’re tired by this part of the ceremony – has the fact that The Hurt Locker is directed helped its chances? Are people giving it extra praise and attention because it’s directed by a woman? I don’t know the answer to those questions but I do know Bigelow will win this Oscar. Matt’s Pick: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

With The Hurt Locker sweeping many guild awards, Jeremy Renner isn’t without hope here. However, I’m confident that 5-time nominee Jeff Bridges will break his duck and finally win an Academy Award. He’s a highly regarded actor who has made some great speeches along the way. This is his time to shine. Matt’s Pick: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Most of the acting races look fairly predictable but if there’s going to be a surprise, it’ll be in the best actress category. Meryl Streep was the early favourite. Yes, she’s won twice before but her last victory was in 1983. She’s had 11 consecutive losses since that time. Streep is well overdue and this looked to be her year. Along came Sandra Bullock. She won the Golden Globe and then the ever important Screen Actors Guild Award. This makes her the favourite. But let’s not be too hasty. The Guild win was significant but did they give it to Bullock only because Streep won in that category two years ago (for Doubt)? It’s possible and if so, the Oscars may be a different story. How much love is there for Bullock within the much smaller Academy? Let’s not rule out Carey Mulligan either. She won the BAFTA and there are a lot of people who are members of both the American and British Academies. But did she win mainly because she’s British and was on home turf? That seems more likely but don’t rule out a Mulligan victory – particularly if Streep and Bullock split their votes. I need to tip at least one upset so I’m going with Mulligan. Matt’s Pick: Carey Mulligan, An Education

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

And the Oscar goes to Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds. I hope he’s got room in his house for his Oscar statue. Given that he’s won 10,000 other awards this season, I have my doubts. Matt’s Pick: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

The same thing can be said of Mo’Nique. When the same actor wins every single award, it makes you wonder if they ever run out of speech material. Do they just say the same thing at every awards show? Or do they save up their best material for the Oscars? We’ll find out soon when Mo’Nique steps to the stage. Matt’s Pick: Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Up in the Air

Academy voters tend to spread their support in the major categories. Up In The Air won’t be winning any other categories but as one of the more popular best picture nominees, it’s strongly tipped to win this category. Many see its script as its strongest asset and it’s won a bunch of awards to date. I think it’s a deserved win. Matt’s Pick: Up in the Air.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

This is a tricky one. The Hurt Locker is the frontrunner given it will win best picture and best director. But let’s not forget the brilliant writing of Quentin Tarantino in Inglourious Basterds. Tarantino has won in this category before – back in 1995 for Pulp Fiction – but I don’t know if too many voters will remember this. Now comes the part of my form guide where I have to make my biggest decision. When it comes to the Academy Awards, there are two possibilities – (1) the Oscars will be shared around, or (2) one film will sweep most categories even if it doesn’t deserve it. Slumdog Millionaire did this last year (8 Oscars, really?). If I tip Hurt Locker here, I’ve got to lean towards it in the technically categories too. It pains me to say it (because I think Avatar is a better film) but yes, I think a Hurt Locker sweep is on the cards. It won a lot of awards at the BAFTAs (not so easy for an American film) so I don’t see how it won’t happen back home. Matt’s Pick: The Hurt Locker.

Best Achievement in Editing

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

The editing award is an interesting one as it’s often the barometer for the best picture Oscar. It is either won by a big action film (e.g. Speed, The Matrix, The Bourne Ultimatum) or the film which goes on to win the best picture Oscar. I don’t think I can pick anything else here but The Hurt Locker. Matt’s Pick: The Hurt Locker.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

I’m getting angry now. I feel I’m in another position where I have to pick The Hurt Locker over Avatar. The White Ribbon took the guild award (in somewhat of an upset) but I think it has little chance against the Avatar v. Hurt Locker battle. I see voters being anti-Avatar in this category (unnecessarily I believe) because of its reliance on visual effects. Sigh. Matt’s Pick: The Hurt Locker.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Now, this is interesting. No Hurt Locker here. Were the voters not impressed by the military uniforms? The good news is that it’s someone else’s turn to win. But which film? Avatar looks to be the favourite as it’s the only best picture nominee in the list. Hmmm, this is tricky though. Will there also be a voter backlash against Avatar because they don’t believe the sets are real? The Guild was shared between Avatar, Hurt Locker and Sherlock Holmes. Does this mean Holmes has a realistic chance here? It did make a lot of money – something that Nine, Parnassus and Young Victoria did not. Tricky, tricky, tricky. It’s definitely between these two films but which one? Avatar won the BAFTA so I’ll give it my preference. Yay Avatar! Matt’s Pick: Avatar.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Coraline
Fantastic Mr Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

I’d like to see Fantastic Mr. Fox spring an upset but let’s be honest, Up is the only best picture nominee in this list so how could it lose? Bonus points at any Oscars party goes to anyone who has actually seen The Secret Of Kells. Matt’s Pick: Up.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Ajami (Israel)
El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
The Prophet (France)
The White Ribbon (Germany)

You have two choices here. France and Germany have been pitted against each other once again. Will it be The Prophet (which won the BAFTA and the runner-up award at the Cannes Film Festival)? Or will it be The White Ribbon (which won the Golden Globe, the European Film Award and the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival). I’ve seen A Prophet and think it’s overrated so I’m going with The White Ribbon. Upsets can happen in this category though because to be able to vote, you must have gone to special screenings to prove that you saw the film. I guess they don’t trust the likes of George Clooney and Julia Roberts when they say they checked out El Secreto de Sus Ojos at their local multiplex. Matt’s Pick: The White Ribbon.

That’s it from me. Let’s hope it’s a great Oscars and that Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin do a super job as hosts. A few upsets would be nice too. Go Avatar!

Matthew Toomey

To read more of Matthew Toomey's work, check out his blog at The Film Pie.